Eastern Europe Top 10 May 24

Compiled by: Hristo Voynov and Kristijan Fidanovski

1. In a long-awaited veridct, the former Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski was sentenced to two years in jail for the unlawful procurement of a luxurious vehicle for personal use. The Mercedes that Gruevski allegedly bought for almost 600,000 euros was one of the spiciest revelations from the series of leaked phone conversations in 2015, when Gruevski was still in power. The former prime minister is also being tried in four other unrelated cases and might end up spending up to 20 years in prison.

2. A Dutch-led investigation into the 2014 Malaysian Airlines plane crash over Ukraine has concluded that the incident was due to a Buk missile that originated from the Russia’s 53rd Antiaircraft Missile Brigade. The conclusions were largely drawn from social media records that unwittingly helped track where the missile was before the incident. While such methods can be questionable, they have become commonplace in modern investigations, and similar reports with similar methods have drawn similar conclusions. To some, this may indicate the strength in the claim, while others may connect it to faults within the investigatory process. The team was comprised of international figures to keep its findings from being biased, though its make up, which has representatives from Australia, Belgium, Malaysia, the Netherlands, and Ukraine, will not convince anyone who sides with Russia on the issue of its impartiality. Russia has denied any connection since the incident, including denials that it has or had any military equipment in Ukraine, and it is unlikely to change its story.However, Australia and the Netherlands are now officially blaming Russia for the incident, which may further complicate relations between them.

3. Most major European leaders gathered in Sofia last week for the 2018 EU-Western Balkans Summit. As usual, the summit was an uneasy combination of declarations of support for enlargement and cautious expressions of enlargement fatigue by leading European politicians, most notably French President Emmanuel Macron.

4. Mayoral elections in the Moldovan towns of Chisinau and Balti, the two largest towns in the country, took place to replace mayors that resigned in protest of unrelated criminal charges against each of them. While mayoral positions have little meaning for greater geopolitical purposes, these elections act as a litmus test for sentiment across the country, which has suffered a split government because of an EU/Russia divide. In the capital of Chisinau, the pro-Russian Socialist candidate won 41% while pro-European Dignity and Truth Platformparty won 31%, which will lead to a second round. In the second city of Balti, pro-Russia Our Party candidate won with 61%.

5. The European Commission does not consider Bulgaria ready for joining the Eurozone yet. Due to lack of legal and fiscal compatibility between Bulgaria and the Eurozone, Bulgaria cannot even join the Exchange Rate Mechanism, the so-called “waiting area” for the Eurozone.

6. Good and bad news for the Czech party ANO’s never ending coalition building efforts. On the positive side, their proposed partners, the Social Democrats, have submitted their proposed ministers as their part in the deal to back ANO. They also held an internal vote regarding joining the coalition, though the results won’t be revealed for a while. The bad news is that their supporting partners, the Communists, stated they may refuse to support the coalition if Czechia increases its military support to missions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Baltic states. This boost in troops was approved by the senate, but still has some hurdles before it is officially passed. If the Communists hold back support, ANO would have to find another party as the third coalition partner, which might be highly complicated this late into its partnership with the Social Democrats.

7. The Croatian government has responded to the series of scandals related to the crisis facing its biggest retail, Agrokor, by appointing a new minister of the economy. The management of Agrokor has been on trial for various financial irregularities for months. Moreover, recently leaked emails demonstrated that the previous minister of the economy mishandled the state management of Agrokor. Dealing with the Agrokor crisis will be crucial for the new minister, as the retail giant employs over 40,000 people.

8. Slovakian President Andrej Kiska has stated that he won’t be running for the upcoming presidential elections, which has many implications for the future of Slovakian politics. He stated that he’s not leaving the political scene, which means that a campaign for the office of Prime Minister is possible, as is him starting his own political party. As someone who is considered Slovakia’s most popular politician, he would surely be a strong contender for the position. While he was initially uninterested in moving towards that direction, he stated that the murder of journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée has changed his perspective on the direction that the country is going.

9. The talks surrounding the name dispute between Macedonia and Greece are entering a crucial stage, as the two foreign ministers are meeting in the US in the company of UN mediator Matthew Nimetz. Last week, the Macedonian government stated its preference for the name “Republic of Ilinden Macedonia” as a solution to the decade-long dispute, but Greece has seemingly rejected this option.

10. Hungary’s main opposition party, Jobbik, may be splitting up following an internal party election. The previous party leader, Gabor Vona, quit after the party’s loss in the recent parliamentary elections and his replacement is the more moderate Tamás Sneider. During Vona’s time, Jobbik worked hard to become the nationalist party within Hungary, even trying to target the leading party, FIDESZ, for not being tough enough on migrants, one of Hungary’s most important issues. This came with attempts to open the party up for other voters who care about issues aside from nationalism. LászlóToroczkai, the party vice-chairperson, has decided that it is time to rebel from the more moderate voices that have taken over the party and held a press conference to threaten actions that may split the party in half, if it decides to ignore what he sees as its right wing roots. This would further split the opposition in Hungary, who are already having trouble competing against FIDESZ.

 

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