Compiled by Hristo Voynov and Eva Jovanova
1. The investigation into any Russian efforts to influence the US 2016 elections has an interesting twist that brings Ukrainian citizens into the fold. US political strategist Paul Manafort has a history of working with the Party of Regions, a pro-Russian party which lost power due to the Euromaidan protests, which is likely to be the root of this week’s news. In filing court documents, his lawyers failed to properly redact certain sensitive information, most notably him giving ex Russian military intelligence officer Konstantin Kilimnik polling data from the Trump campaign, sparking theories that it was passed onto the Internet Research Agency in Russia, which helped it know whom to target in its disinformation campaign. This is all speculative, as it was revealed the intended recipients after Kilimnik were Ukrainian oligarchs Serhiy Lyovochkin and Rinat Akhmetov with ties to the Party of Regions. Also revealed is the fact that Manafort was discussing a possible peace plan with Kilimnik, which is unusual since he was never in a position to formally do so as Trump’s campaign manager for only a brief period in the campaign.
2. Serbian protesters gathered again in Belgrade this Saturday. The anti-Vucic protests carrying the slogan “one out of five million” became a Saturday tradition since the end of November 2018. The protesters carry banners that read “Your time will end”, “Vucic is a thief”, and also banners that ask for the resignation of the Minister of Interior Affairs. The “Protest Against Dictatorship” group that organized the protests in April 2016 after Aleksandar Vucic was elected President, is officially behind these protests too. Opposition party members and leaders are also attending the protests, however, most protesters have no party affiliation. Vucic announced that he will not ban the protests.
3. Four Polish citizens have been arrested, two in Poland and two in Ukraine, over their involvement in bombing Hungarian cultural centers in Ukraine. According to authorities, these individuals with far-right ties were paid by Russian spies to perform the attack in order to heighten Ukrainian/Hungarian ties. Hungary has been vocal about the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine and has indicated it would block any attempt to bring Ukraine closer to Europe until the issue is taken care of, which makes this attack significant. Publically stated findings of the investigation indicate that security services have significant evidence tying the two together, such as the names of individuals and proof of the money paid for the attack.
4. Bulgarian truck drivers plan on blocking the center of Brussels next week over the Mobility Package. The package includes three initiatives that concern the governance road transport in the EU and was announced last Friday. The truck drivers are worried that the three initiatives might leave them without a job, as one of the initiatives foresees a clear regulation of driving and rest times, and make them spend their rest time in a hotel, rather than in their truck. Also, they would then be required to travel back home every three weeks, which would either lead to a decrease in their salary or would bear higher costs for their employers.
5. The liberal/illiberal divide within Europe is again in the headlines this week, with the European Parliament adding Hungary’s new ‘slave law’ (among other rule of law issues in the country) to its agenda for an upcoming meeting. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also accused the EU of bullying certain countries over their internal affairs. The main development in this front, however, is the talks between Poland and Italy to create an anti-EU caucus within the European Parliament which would likely push for the illiberal wing of the EU to act unrestrained by the EU’s requirements for liberal values such as human rights. A unified anti-federal response to the EU’s requests from certain members will surely limit the EU’s ability to govern effectively.
6. Greek opposition MPs might support the name agreement between Greece and Macedonia. At least this is what Dora Bakoyannis, the former foreign minister from the opposition Nea Demokratia, claimed. She accused the leader of the United Greek party, a junior member of the ruling coalition, Panos Kammenos, that he would support the ratification of the deal in Parliament, despite his claims that he opposes it. The deal, which will change Greek’s neighboring Macedonia’s name into North Macedonia, is expected to be ratified in the Greek Parliament by the end of this month. Currently, the Macedonian Parliament is passing the final phase of the constitutional changes that the deal imposes. The Greek Parliament then will have to ratify the deal with a simple majority, otherwise, over two and a half decades of negotiations will be in vain. The deal will unblock Macedonia’s Euro-Atlantic integration.
7. Though last week appeared to have positive news between Belarus and Russia regarding their energy dispute, this week Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the two may drift further apart if Belarus is not properly compensated over the increase in gas prices that sparked the original dispute. In a indirectly related development, Belarus has removed restrictions of US diplomats in the country, along with noting further plans of rapprochement for the future. While this may be a way of showing the seriousness behind the threat, Belarus is unlikely to find a supportive partner with the US or the EU because of their issues with rule of law in the country, while Russia is much more willing to tolerate authoritarian allies.
8. Bosnian Serbs celebrated the disputed “statehood day” this Wednesday. The celebration marked the 27th anniversary of the creation of the Republika Srpska entity in 1992, only a few months before the beginning of the bloodsheds in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Hundreds of police officers, firefighters, and the pro-Putin Russian biker club Night Wolves participate in a parade that marked the celebration. Many see the parade as a provocation by Milorad Dodik, who is testing the fragile country institutions. The Croatian authorities are currently investigating if their ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina attended the parade, and have already recalled a diplomat who attended it.
9. Two significant developments bode poorly for the newest government in Czechia. The ruling government coalition, which took months of negotiations to find a deal, appears to be very one-sided, with the minority party in the coalition, the Social Democrats, complaining that ANO, the majority party, is rejecting far too many of their proposals. Should the coalition break, it is unlikely that ANO will find another partner. Meanwhile, the president’s chancellor has been accused of calling various judges to find out how certain cases are going, and to offer advice on what the final ruling should be. While he’s been faced with various other scandals, this is possibly the most serious accusation against him. It coincided with controversial ex-president Vaclav Klaus stating that he does not rule out another presidential campaign in 2022.
10. Romania’s government celebrated the beginning of its six-month presidency with the Council of the European Union this Thursday. The presidency’s role is to chair meetings of the Council, determine the agenda, and facilitate dialogue at Council meeting and with other EU institutions. During the celebration, hundreds of protesters showed up in Bucharest with pro-EU banners and chanted slogans against the ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD). PSD is sharply criticized for trying to give amnesty to corrupt politicians. Some of the main priorities of the Romanian presidency are convergence and cohesion in Europe, sustainability, developing the EU social dimension, security, countering racism, intolerance, and countering fake news.
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