Eastern Europe Top 10 November 9

Compiled by Hristo Voynov and Eva Jovanova

1. Russia and the USA have another conflicting week of foreign policy. Russia just kicked off peace talks with the Taliban, but without an official representative of the US-backed Afghanistan government. The Russian Foreign Minister also declared that the US sanctions against Iran were illegitimate and that the Obama-era deal to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities was still in effect. It also increased efforts of cooperation with Turkey in Syria, whose main goal is to remove the Kurdish forces from their northern territory which would reduce the US’ capabilities in the 7-year-old conflict, and is in talks to increase military coordination with Cuba. Meanwhile, the US added another round of sanctions against Russians involved in governing Crimea. Also, a Russian oligarch, Dmitry Rybolovlev, was detained in Morocco under accusations of fraud but his ties to US President Donald Trump has led to rumors about other possibilities including the investigation into ties between Trump and Russia.

2. Kosovo introduced customs tariff on imports from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina this Wednesday. The customs tariff stands at ten percent on all goods entering Kosovo from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj explained the move as retaliation to “lack of recognition and savage policies”. The EU is also asking for clarification. The spokesperson for the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Maja Kocijancic, stated that the customs tariff is a clear violation of Kosovo’s obligations under CEFTA and expects Kosovo to revoke the measures.

3. Pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are gearing up for an election on November 11^th, the 100^th anniversary of the end of the first World War. Russia has already stated that it plans to recognize the outcome of the election, which is no surprise. It has also stated that the election is vital in the face of the Minsk agreement because the separatists need legitimate leaders who can lead the country in order to abide by any such peace deal. This goes against Ukraine’s claims that the election will violate the peacekeeping deal as an escalation of the territory’s illegitimate rule. Ukraine has also accused this election of being used to continue the frozen hybrid conflict, including claiming that Russian troops in the territory will vote to ensure that the results match what the backers of the conflict want it to be.

4. Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic, and Kosovo Prime Minister, Hashim Thaci, met on Thursday as a part of the Belgrade-Prishtina dialogue. The meeting happened a day after Kosovo had imposed a 10% customs tariff on Serbian goods. Their meeting and their belligerent rhetoric caught EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini’s attention, who reminded them that they have to stick to the dialogue framework. The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue seems to have reached a halt at the moment, even though the EU remains hopeful that the two countries will manage to normalize their relations by the 2019 European elections in May.

5. The Czechian government coalition shows signs of cracking yet again, with the Vice Chairman of the coalition’s minority party, the Social Democrats, resigning over the party’s role in the government. It is unclear how much of an impact this will make on the unity of the coalition, but this is one of the many similar news that is bearing down on the unity efforts. Meanwhile, the coalition that was formed to rule Prague has released its plans for what it will do while in power, which appears extra capable when juxtaposed to the ruling ANO/Social Democrats coalition.

6. Macedonia ex-Prime Minister who brought the country to a political crisis in 2015-2017, Nikola Gruevski, remains a Member of Parliament even though he is heading to jail. Gruevski is under investigation for multiple corruption scandals by the Special Public Prosecutor that were uncovered in the wiretapped conversations in 2015. He was sentenced to two years jail time, and the court has time until Monday to decide if his jail sentence will be postponed. According to the Constitution of Macedonia, MPs parliamentary immunity does not cover Gruevski’s case. This makes the whole case somewhat dubious.

7. The Hungarian government has started another controversial ‘National Consultation; this time focusing on family subsidies, compared to the previous one being that focused on immigrants. This one continues the tone of the previous one, with questions that are designed to elicit a particular response and ideological sentiment. This means it features questions such as “Do you agree that the population decrease must be tackled not by immigration, but by more support for families?” and “Do you agree with the principle that a child has the right to a mother and father?” It is meant to tackle the aging demographics of Hungary and Europe, which is an issue that will have major side effects in the following generations when the results of brain drain and low birth rates take full effect. Hungary has put in 5% of its GDP into family support programs, which has increased its fertility rate from 1.23 to 1.5

8. Bosnia and Herzegovina is getting ready to inaugurate Milorad Dodik, the President of Republika Srpska, the Serb majority entity. The inauguration will take place on November 20. The other two members of the Bosnian tripartite presidency are Zeljko Komsic from Democratic Front, who won with the promise to represent the interest of both Bosniaks and Croats, and Sefik Dzaferovic from the main Bosniak party. Dodik is famous for his Serb ethnocentric (and occasionally secessionist) inflammatory rhetoric and promised to represent only the interests of the ethnic Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He vowed to take an oath before the assembly of Republika Srpska before he is sworn in as a president.

9. Poland’s run-off elections resulted in victories for the opposition parties. The mayors in Kraków and Gdańsk, the 2^nd and 6^th largest cities in Poland respectively, both won their re-election campaign with just over 64% of the vote, against members of the ruling Law and Justice party. This is significant because of the strong national support that the ruling party has, giving the opposition hope for upcoming elections. This could also be explained by the general liberal bias that can be found in major cities, as opposed to the ruling party’s support base in rural areas. The mayor of Warsaw, also from an opposition party, is also currently in a controversy of her own for banning an upcoming repeat of last year’s controversial “Independence March” which featured a significant contingent of ultra-nationalists. While there are talks of an official state-sponsored march, the organizers are likely to try and hold the march anyways.

10. Croatian 65-year old fascist tried to vandalize the monument of Rade Koncar, a prominent anti-Ustasa Croatian revolutionary during the Second World War. The story went viral earlier this week as the fascist broke his leg in an attempt to push the monument. The incident occurred in the Croatian coastal city of Split, and the man was immediately fined for the act of vandalism. Rade Koncar was shot by Ustasas 76 years ago.