Compiled by Eva Jovanova and Hristo Voynov
1. Romania took over the EU rotating presidency for the first time on January 1. Brussels fears that Romania can preside well with the Council for the following six months due to attempts by Romania’s main government party PSD to subvert the country’s democratic principles and the rule of law. Corruption in Romania remains a huge challenge, and PSD antagonized Brussels when the parliament proposed a law that would give amnesty to corrupt politicians to avoid prosecution. The law would largely benefit Liviu Dragnea, the leader of PSD and Romania’s most powerful man.
2. An American, Paul Whelan, was arrested in Russia over alleged espionage. So far, nothing has been given by the Kremlin regarding the accusations against him, and the US accuses Russia of arresting the ex-Marine in retaliation for the US arrest of Maria Butina. Whelan’s arrest became more complicated when it turned out that Whelan was also a citizen of Canada, Ireland, and Britain. While this story is still developing and remains a mystery, it continues the trend of escalation between the two countries. It also mirrors the similar ‘arrest followed by seemingly retaliatory arrest pattern that followed the Canadian imprisonment of the CFO of Chinese phone makers Huawei, which may mean new international norms regarding the arrest of foreign nationals.
3. Serbian Prime Minister, Ana Brnabic, stated earlier this Friday that the (land swap) deal between Serbia and Kosovo less plausible today than it was before they began the initial negotiations. She added that the new borders were on the table, but according to her, they were only to Kosovo’s benefit, and to Serbia’s loss. She did not quote on what the newly envisaged borders could look like and claimed that Kosovo’s tariffs of 100% on all Serbian goods, the establishment of the Kosovo Army, and the announcements that Kosovo’s border to Albania might be opened, are all factors that made Serbia reluctant to go further with the deal. The question, however, is what exactly is on the negotiating table that made Serbia flinch.
4. The new president for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe has been seated, and he is Slovakian Foreign Affairs Minister Miroslav Lajčák. This is a not only a reson for pride in the country, but also a possible chance for a new approach to the Ukrainian Conflict, which has occupied much of OSCE’s efforts in recent years. Ukraine places hopes in his presidency, as a change in policy might make it easier to find a compromise within the conflict, but because of the democratic nature of the organization, which includes Russia, the president has a limited range of actions to affect the international organization.
5. Bosnian Serb police authorities banned all protests on Monday, whereas on Sunday they arrested several protestors in the protests over the unsolved murder of the 21-year old David Dragicevic, who was found dead in a river in March 2018. The main organizer of the protests and father of David, Davor Dragicevic, went missing ever since the Sunday protests. Some speculate that Davor Dragicevic is fleeing Banja Luka to escape police detention, whereas his family fears that he has been murdered. The mother of David, Suzana Radanovic, organized a prayer in a church’s backyard for her dead child this Wednesday that the Bosnian Serb police nevertheless interrupted.
6. Presidential campaigns in Ukraine are officially starting for the election scheduled for March 31st. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko has not yet announced his candidacy but is expected to do so before the February 3 deadline. While Poroshenko is expected to campaign off his position as the commander in chief during a conflict and his success in gaining independence for Ukraine’s Orthodox church, his main competition comes from the former Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, who is shown to be more popular than Poroshenko.
7. Macedonia’s ongoing constitutional changes are in their final phase, and Macedonia’s Prime Minister, Zoran Zaev, is optimistic that the two-thirds majority will be met. The session is scheduled for January 9, and the constitutional changes involve the country’s name change and derive from the Prespa agreement between Greece and Macedonia. After they are adopted in Macedonia’s Parliament, the agreement will be tabled for ratification in the Greek Parliament.
8. Russian and Belarusian relations appear to be rekindling after meetings between the two presidents regarding an energy deal that Belarus saw as unfair. While the conclusion regarding the energy deal is unknown, both presidents came out with a positive outlook for the future of relations between the two countries. Also discussed was the Union State, a union consisting of only the two countries, and possible room for expansion within this framework. Russia also announced it would remove customs duties from Moldovan goods in a direct deal with Moldovan President Igor Dodon, which would drastically improve the competitiveness of Moldovan goods on Russia’s markets, which is likely to boost his support as a pro-Russian candidate in the upcoming Moldovan elections.
9. New Year, and new travel plans! Lonely Planet listed Serbian Novi Sad and Croatian Zadar among its top 10 “second” cities worth seeing in 2019. Although the capitals of the two countries were already well advertised, Lonely Planet listed so-called “second cities,” that were far from the hype and yet elegant and charming. Another Balkan country that usually makes it to the Lonely Planet lists is Albania.
10. The Hungarian opposition continues to rally against the Viktor Orban government. The most significant efforts come from Szeged, where unions and opposition parties united to introduce a boycott of the new ‘slave law’ through the city council. The green LMP party is also contributing to these efforts but has focused organizing in Budapest where protests against the law continue. Efforts extended to fight the law extended to Parliament where opposition parties called for a special session to nullify the law, but because the ruling party that passed the law, FIDESZ, didn’t show up the parliament and so it did not meet quorum, stopping such efforts from the start. The renewed spirit behind the opposition is thus very limited, as FIDESZ controls much of the government and limits their actions.
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