Eastern Europe Top 10 May 12

Compiled by: Hristo Voynov and Kristijan Fidanovski

1. Macedonia and Serbia hosted two high-profile diplomatic visits by German politicians. Skopje was visited by the Minister of State for Europe Michael Roth, while Belgrade was visited by the president of the German parliament’s committee for the European Union affairs Gunter Krichbaum. Both politicians conveyed Germany’s support for the European integration of the Western Balkans, but they were also unequivocal about the urgency of Macedonia solving the name dispute and Serbia reaching a compromise with Kosovo. As Krichbaum put it, “the EU does not want to import unresolved problems”.

2. Production of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has started in the German end. This pipeline has major geopolitical ramifications, according to its critics, because it would allow Russia to transport gas through the Baltic Sea, bypassing various Eastern European countries, including Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states. This has multiple possible ramifications, such as Polish PM Morawiecki’s theory that Russia’s resulting lack of need for Ukraine as a transit point for its gas will make it more willing to engage in direct conflict in the country. While such ideas are purely speculative for now, this pipeline will surely change Europe’s gas economy in ways that are still entirely unpredictable.

3. A journalist was shot in the leg in Podgorica, Montenegro after a series of death threats related to her research on the tobacco industry. Her life is not in danger.

4. Czech president Milos Zeman made a controversial statement that is likely to put him right in the middle between Russia’s tensions with the West. Following the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain, the Russian government’s defense was that the supposed poison, novichok, might have been produced in Czechia. This prompted Zeman to open up an investigation with two of Czech intelligence agencies, which brought contradicting results. Military intelligence, which Zeman chose over the civilian BIS agency, found that Novichok was created, studied, and then destroyed within Czechia. While this sounds harmless and guilty free regarding the notorious poisoning, Zeman is accused of feeding the Kremlin’s interests by feeding into Putin’s excuses and dividing the unified response in punishing Russia over the action. His defense is that “it is hypocritical to pretend that this was not so”. This comes at the same time as Czechia prepares to take over the chairperson position in OPCW (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons).

5. Former Romanian Prime Minister Viktor Ponta was freed from all charges in a trial for tax evasion and graft. Ponta belongs to the same party as Prime Minister Liviu Dragnea, who is himself under suspicion of corruption after an unsuccessful attempt to pass a law curtailing the ability of the Romanian prosecution to prosecute corruption.

6. Hungarian President János Áder has asked the new, post-election parliament to reaffirm Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s position in the country’s leadership. The President also stated that the legitimacy of the election is ‘beyond dispute’, effectively tossing aside the opposition claims of election inconsistencies that were in favor of Orban’s party, FIDESZ. This happened while there were protests held by different groups outside the parliament building. Two interesting indications of what is to come have since been reported on. First, the Prime Minister’s office will have expanded responsibilities to deal with the EU, most likely to give Orban more control over Hungary’s response to tension between the EU and itself, along with its Visegrad 4 allies. The other is statements that Orban’s press chief made regarding the supreme court, which he accused of invalidating overseas votes to limit FIDESZ’ victory. This comes at a strange time in Hungary’s judiciary, as multiple judges have resigned from their positions with no clear explanation.

7. Adolf Hitler’s book “Mein Kampf” has become popular among Macedonians, with thousands of copies having been sold in recent years. Fortunately, no fascist parties have emerged in the country yet.

8. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin entered his fourth and last term on May 7th. As per the Russian constitution, the government transitioned from its current state to an interim position, until changes are officially set in place. While Putin won with a clear majority, many dispute the elections as a farce in which only government approved candidates were allowed. However the strongest form of opposition was that which took place a few days before the inauguration ceremony, in which 1,600 protesters were arrested from all over Russia. These protests had no clear goals, as they were against Putin and not in support of any particular opposition member. In this theme, common chants included variations of ‘Putin is not our Tsar’ in reference to the fact that Putin will now be the second longest serving head of the Russian state, after Stalin. Now, the question becomes what will happen after this 6 year period is over and Putin cannot legally hold power

9. This year, Russia was not alone in marking Victory Day with a parade. A series of cities in Serbia, Montenegro, and the Republic of Srpska held their own parades in conjunction with the Russian Embassy. Interestingly, this custom only began in 2012.

10. May 9th was celebrated all over Eastern Europe as Victory Day, marking the defeat of Nazi Germany. This year marked the 73rd anniversary. In Ukraine, however, the celebrations were complicated for security reasons. The Ukrainian intelligence agency SBU raided the offices of the banned Communist party and its leader, finding St. George ribbons (whose significance in Ukraine has changed since the war started), stickers, and pamphlets, which state security services say were part of a plot to sow discord and overthrow the government during May 9th celebrations. The communist party of Ukraine is outlawed in the effort to de-Sovietize the country, but it has still retained some functions, and it promises to appeal the actions and findings of the SBU.

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