Compiled by Hristo Voynov and Kristijan Fidanovski
1. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo President Hashim Thaci are restarting talks in Brussels today, nine months since the last stage took place. The biggest breakthrough last time around was the agreement on integrating Serbian Kosovo judges into the Kosovo judiciary, while the biggest stumbling block now seems to be the regulation of municipal governance. Earlier this week, Vucic made an ambiguous statement that he was “ready to open the envelope of [Kosovo’s] independence”.
2. The elections in Russia gave Putin a clear mandate to lead the country for the next 6 years, winning just over 76% of the vote. While there were reports of irregularities and voter manipulation, it is uncertain how widespread these were, and it is highly unlikely that it would have altered the final outcome. This week also saw Russian diplomats in the UK leave after being expelled from the country, followed by a similar exchange of British diplomats in Russia. Russia maintains its stance that it had nothing to do with the poisoning that preceded this crisis, claiming that none of the ‘facts’ presented by the UK are proven and that the US might actually be the one behind the poisoning. The US is considering upping its sanctions in response to this incident as well.
3. Macedonia’s Special Public Prosecutor launched an investigation into the termination of the country’s census in 2011. The prosecutor alleges that the then Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and his junior coalition partner Ali Ahmeti (who is now also part of the SDSM-led government) made a political decision to terminate the census procedure, which they falsely justified as necessary because of technical errors, thus costing the budget 2.8 million euros. This is the first investigation by the Special Public Prosecutor targeting Mr. Ahmeti.
4. It appears that Andrej Babis’ ANO party has finally found its coalition partners. While nothing has been officially set, it was announced that the coalition building efforts will focus on the Social Democrats as the main partners, with the inclusion of the Communist party as the current parliament demographics require a three party partnership. The Social Democrats and ANO appear to be on similar terms regarding foreign and social policy, but widely differ on the issue of taxation. The talks are said to last until April 10th, and it is unclear what will happen if there is no agreement between the three. As this is the closest effort thus far to establish a coalition, it would be a blow to the confidence of ANO if they do not establish a majority government.
5. The controversy surrounding the abuse of Facebook data by Cambridge Analytica that has been shaking the world this week did not bypass Eastern Europe. One of the most interesting parts of the leaked video material was a mysterious reference to political engineering in an East European country, which people have been alleging might be Romania. The 2016 parliamentary elections occurred just a couple of years after Cambridge Analytica set up a local office, which has prompted speculation that the organization might have facilitated the victory of the country’s ruling party.
6. With the upcoming Hungarian election, the many opposition parties brief efforts to establish a coalition to compete against FIDESZ appear to be waning. While the leftist Democratic Coalition party stated it was willing to cooperate with Jobbik, a far right party and the strongest opposition to the ruling party, the green party LMP decided to ends its efforts to find middle ground. With the popularity of president Viktor Orban and his party, a wide and united opposition will be needed for any genuine challenge to their rule, and the recent LMP news may be enough.
7. Kosovo’s Parliament has finally ratified a border demarcation deal with Montenegro, after four unsuccessful attempts with opposition party Vetevendosje releasing tear gas in the parliament. This time, two-thirds of MPs supported the law, and some MPs from Vetevendosje were banned from attending the session and/or arrested. The opposition is accusing the government of conceding territory to Montenegro with the demarcation agreement.
8. A pro-unification rally will take place on March 25th in Moldova’s capital Chișinău in an appeal to Moldovan and Romanian leaders for reunification between the two. This prompted a harsh reaction from Moldovan president Igor Dodon, who threatened the creation of a “National Front of Resistance” to prevent any such action from destabilizing the unity of Moldova. He also accused Romania of supporting such sentiment, and warned them to stop before they become “Moldova’s Number 1 enemy”.
9. Vladimir Putin’s re-election has sparked mixed reactions in the Balkans. The loudest congratulations came from Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik and the leader of Montenegro’s pro-Russian opposition party, Milan Knezevic. While the Serbian and Croatian governments joined the congratulations, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Albania and Romania followed the EU’s lead and refrained from congratulating Putin on his less-than-fair electoral victory.
10. Poland’s three month deadline to defend its judicial reforms following the triggering of EU Article 7 has ended, with nothing to show for it. Poland has offered no strong defense to the accusations, leaving it at the firm stance it has always had; that there is no threat to the rule of law in Poland and that this crisis is the product of a long term misunderstanding of Poland’s efforts to improve its judicial system. This is unlikely to convince the EU that it is over reaching, but Poland will probably be okay nonetheless. Any sanctions because of Article 7, such as revoking voting rights or funding from the union, must be agreed to by all members of the union. Poland’s V4 partners, especially Hungary, are interested in preventing sanctions to both keep its bloc united and powerful, as well as preventing the precedent of internal EU sanctions from happening.
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